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(ここはbewaad institute@kasumigasekiの過去ログ倉庫です。コメント等は仕様上受付けを停止しておりませんが、こちらではご遠慮いただければ幸いです。何かございましたら、現行サイトにお願いいたします。)

2005|01|02|03|04|05|06|07|08|09|10|11|12|
2006|01|02|03|04|05|06|07|08|09|10|11|12|
2007|01|02|

2005-12-27

[politics][economy]2005年を振り返る(4)‐年間10大ニュース「政治・経済部門」

#諸事情あって本日も予定変更ですが、このエントリ最後のリストで確定(のつもり)です。

第10位 人権擁護法案論争
相当程度ネット限定で十大ニュースに値するとは思っていませんが、webmasterがそれなりの役割を果たせたのかな、と手前味噌で(笑)。
第9位 愛知万博
国内で今年最も人出のあったイベントということで。
第8位 中国人民元・管理フロート制へ移行
まだまだ管理の程度は厳しいですが、中長期的な安定化に向けた一里塚の1つではあります。まだまだ予断を許さないのも事実ですが。
第7位 日本人の自然増減・減少に
そのうち来るとわかっていた話ではありますが、やはり一つの区切りであることは間違いありません。中長期的な影響としては貯蓄投資差額の変化が一番大きいでしょうから、資本移動自由化がどこまできちんと達成できるかどうかで今後の経済の趨勢が定まってくるはずです。
第6位 インフルエンザ、パンデミック?
幸いにして現時点では事前にささやかれた最悪シナリオをたどっているわけではなさそうですが・・・。
第5位 デフレ継続
最後の四半期になって量的緩和解除へのアドバルーンや来年の緊縮財政が明らかとなる中、来年はこの好景気がデフレ脱却につながるかどうかが試されるでしょう。
第4位 次期FRB議長にバーナンキ理事指名
リフレ派としては今年最も明るいニュースでした。
第3位 総選挙で自民党圧勝
選挙結果により自民党が多数の議席を確保したことそのものの国会審議への影響よりも、それに至る経緯における小泉総理以下党執行部の振る舞いが正当化されたことの影響の方が大きいでしょう。
第2位 原油高騰
世界的に見れば輸出命の日本経済にとって、これにもかかわらず需要が腰折れていないのは不幸中の幸いです。日本国内に関しては、寒冬の中北国・雪国の方々のご負担はいかばかりかと存じます。来年は幸多からんことを。
第1位 ローマ教皇ヨハネ・パウロ2世聖下逝去
その影響を考えれば、やはりトップはこれではないかと。

#「2005年を振り返る」シリーズ・ラインナップ(2006/1/2確定)

  1. どうして景気回復したのか(12/24)
  2. 私的ランキング・女性タレントトップ10(12/25)
  3. 年間10大ニュース「芸能・スポーツ等部門」(12/26)
  4. 年間10大ニュース「政治・経済部門」(12/27)
  5. 私的ランキング・新刊書トップ10(12/28)
  6. 予想が外れた言い訳をしてみる(12/29)
  7. 総選挙の先にあるもの(12/30)
  8. 総括と展望(12/31)
  9. 当サイトアクセス数分析(1/2)

[history][book]塩野七生「キリストの勝利/ローマ人の物語XIV」

昨年第13巻が発売された際、ベリサリウス読みたさにテオドシウス大帝まで書いてくれればなどと愚痴っていたのですが、この巻でようやくテオドシウス大帝がカバーされました。やっぱりベリサリウスは書いてくれないようで・・・。

しかし本書、シリーズ中で久しぶりの上出来と言ってよいでしょう。理由として挙げられるのは次の2点。

  • 人物に思い入れを持つと筆が滑らかになる筆者ですが、ユリアヌスと聖アンブロシウスの2人(とりわけユリアヌス)に感情移入があって記述に力があります。というか実質この巻の主人公はユリアヌスで、これだけ一人の人物に絞ってページが進むのはハドリアヌス以来ではないでしょうか。
  • 最近鼻についていた現代との比較がかなり抑制されています。ローマについて読みたいのであって、ローマを題材にした時評を読みたいわけではありませんので。

いよいよ次巻で最終巻となりますが(といっても出版は来年の今頃でしょう)、個人的にはスティリコをたっぷり描いてほしいと思ってます。ヴァレンティニアヌス(1世)のスルーっぷりを見ると若干不安ですが(笑)。

[economy]「構造改革」の経済的帰結・改

24日のエントリにつき、帰属家賃の影響についてkumakuma1967さんからご指摘がありましたので、そのベースで改めて表を作り直してみました。ソース、単位、注記などはすべて24日のエントリに同じです。まずは実額です。

実額GDP帰属家賃以外の民間最終消費支出帰属家賃民間企業投資その他民間公的部門(粗)輸出(粗)輸入
2001Q2499.1234.949.072.420.7119.853.0-50.7
2001Q3492.6233.349.371.117.1119.251.3-48.7
2001Q4488.5232.449.666.117.5118.850.7-46.6
2002Q1490.3231.549.765.815.3121.554.1-47.6
2002Q2488.8232.949.764.615.9118.756.1-49.1
2002Q3490.0233.849.865.017.3118.454.7-49.1
2002Q4489.9232.350.065.817.6117.558.3-51.7
2003Q1486.7231.350.365.517.9116.257.5-51.9
2003Q2490.7229.750.667.217.8117.657.7-49.9
2003Q3491.0229.950.866.419.6115.759.2-50.7
2003Q4494.6232.350.970.917.0113.760.8-51.1
2004Q1498.2234.251.167.818.0116.563.7-53.1
2004Q2495.6233.851.270.316.3114.065.9-56.0
2004Q3495.3234.051.270.517.2113.366.9-57.9
2004Q4495.3233.051.470.717.2114.168.4-59.5
2005Q1498.6235.151.572.818.2113.166.9-59.0
2005Q2502.9236.751.674.519.0114.469.6-62.9
2005Q3502.1237.051.875.517.1115.372.4-67.0
実額GDP帰属家賃以外の民間最終消費支出帰属家賃民間企業投資その他民間公的部門(粗)輸出(粗)輸入

続いて増減額です。

増減額GDP帰属家賃以外の民間最終消費支出帰属家賃民間企業投資その他民間公的部門(粗)輸出(粗)輸入
2001Q2-2.00.70.93.0-0.3-0.4-1.7-4.2
2001Q3-7.7-0.11.3-0.3-2.8-1.0-4.5-0.4
2001Q4-14.3-1.81.3-8.7-3.90.1-5.94.6
2002Q1-17.0-5.21.2-7.3-7.7-0.7-1.34.0
2002Q2-10.3-2.00.7-7.7-4.9-1.13.11.6
2002Q3-2.60.60.5-6.20.2-0.83.4-0.4
2002Q41.4-0.20.4-0.20.1-1.27.6-5.2
2003Q1-3.5-0.20.6-0.32.6-5.33.5-4.3
2003Q21.8-3.30.92.61.9-1.11.6-0.8
2003Q31.0-4.01.01.52.3-2.74.5-1.6
2003Q44.70.00.95.1-0.6-3.92.50.7
2004Q111.52.90.82.20.10.46.2-1.1
2004Q24.94.20.63.1-1.4-3.68.2-6.2
2004Q34.24.10.44.1-2.4-2.57.7-7.2
2004Q40.70.70.5-0.20.20.47.5-8.5
2005Q10.40.90.45.00.2-3.43.2-5.9
2005Q27.42.90.44.22.70.43.7-6.9
2005Q36.83.00.54.9-0.12.15.5-9.1
2005Q3-2001Q1-5.20.33.22.3-5.9-6.917.1-15.4
2005Q3-2000Q31.83.73.74.0-2.8-4.816.6-18.6
増減額GDP帰属家賃以外の民間最終消費支出帰属家賃民間企業投資その他民間公的部門(粗)輸出(粗)輸入
本日のツッコミ(全263件) [ツッコミを入れる]
ヘタレ (2005-12-27 04:37)

ベリサリウスは、ユスティニアヌス帝時代なので登場はしないですよ。わたしも、好きな将軍ですけどね。

ローマ人は、西ローマ滅亡で終えるんでしょうね。ギボンの如く東まで書いて欲しい気もします(といっても、ヘラクレイオス帝以後はすっ飛ばしの感ありですが)。

ひでき (2005-12-27 12:47)

なぜ絶賛予約注文受け付け中なのに、読了されているのですか?うらやましいです。

kumakuma1967 (2005-12-27 19:30)

あちゃ、せかしたつもり、批判するつもりはなかったのですが、コメント欄で消費マインドが話題になってたのでよけいな事を言ってしまったかと反省しきりです。
......でも対応ありがとうございます。
2005Q3-2000Q3では帰属家賃の伸びがGDPの2倍ですか....

bewaad (2005-12-28 06:23)

>ヘタレさん
塩野さん自身がローマという都市を書きたいといっている以上、ビザンツと称される時代は最初からあきらめていたのですが、「最後の『ローマ』皇帝」としてユスティニアヌス時代までカバーしてくれればな、と夢見て(笑)ました。

bewaad (2005-12-28 06:24)

>ひできさん
書店の店頭には27日から並んでいました。東京だけかもしれませんが・・・。

bewaad (2005-12-28 06:25)

自己レス
×27日→○26日

bewaad (2005-12-28 06:27)

>kumakuma1967さん
いや、まさしくそういう問題意識を共有していましたので、ご指摘を受けて手抜きが過ぎたな(笑)と思ったまでです。

Baatarism (2005-12-28 15:06)

>ローマ人の物語XIV
神奈川県では、今日ようやく発売になりました。
さっそく買ったのはいいけど、読むのは年末年始までお預けかも。w

ひでき (2005-12-29 12:56)

>bewaadさま、

ありがとうございます。

今アマゾンを確認しましたら、「24時間以内に発送」ということでした。昨日のはなんだったのでしょうか?私の発注も既にハンドリングされているようです。

いやぁ、楽しみであす。年末年始の読み物ができました。

bewaad (2005-12-29 14:22)

>Baatarismさん、ひできさん
今回のは読み出すとなかなか止まりませんでしょうから、年末に読み出したら今年中に読み終わってしまうのではないかと(笑)。

Baatarism (2006-01-02 10:44)

ローマ人の物語を読了しました。
読み終えて思ったのは、作者はこの巻を「ローマ人の終焉」として書いたのかなあということです。
だから次の最終巻は後日談のようなものかもしれませんね。
これは「ローマ人」の物語ですから。

bewaad (2006-01-02 16:08)

>Baatarismさん
しきりにスティリコの名を連呼しているのは、彼こそが「最後のローマ人」の称号にふさわしいかなと思っているからだったりします。

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